The Coming Mineral Boom: Opportunity, Instability, and the Risk of Another Lost Decade

Global demand for minerals essential to the energy transition—copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and related inputs—is expected to accelerate sharply over the coming years. This surge represents a historic opportunity for countries that hold a significant share of global production and for mining companies positioned within these supply chains. The opportunity is particularly strong for firms with deep commercial and political linkages to China, which today accounts for 39% to 63% of primary consumption of these minerals (USGS).

However, a country’s ability to convert this mineral boom into long‑term development and broad‑based prosperity will depend on far more than favourable market conditions. The decisive variables will be political stability, regulatory predictability, and the capacity to manage socioeconomic and environmental conflict. Without these foundations, even the most favourable commodity cycle will fail to translate into sustained national gains.

Over the past several years, we have observed a deterioration in these fundamentals across multiple jurisdictions. The resurgence of radical ideological narratives, persistent regulatory uncertainty (notably in Chile and Peru), episodes of violent social conflict (again in Chile and Peru), and chronic weak governance and transparency deficits (D.R. Congo, Indonesia, Philippines) have eroded investor confidence and undermined the sector’s development potential. At the same time, ineffective public policies have failed to improve socioeconomic conditions in mining regions across countries such as Chile, Peru, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Africa, and Gabon.

This dynamic creates a self‑reinforcing vicious cycle: instability fuels conflict; conflict increases operational and political risk; and rising risk generates powerful incentives for companies to minimize exposure—through tax avoidance strategies, aggressive cost‑cutting, reduced social investment, lower performance standards, and accelerated capital recovery. These behaviours, while rational from a firm‑level risk perspective, further weaken the development impact of mining and deepen local grievances.

The world is entering a period of unprecedented mineral demand. Whether this becomes a transformational development window or yet another missed opportunity will depend on the ability of resource‑rich countries to break this cycle of instability, rebuild institutional credibility, and align mining governance with long‑term national objectives.